In a blink of eye, there goes the first quarter of 2018.
Time truly flies, and once again it's time for the quarterly report about dividend again.
It's nice to be receiving dividends isn't it?
Throughout the 1st Quarter of 2018, I've received dividends from:
- Singtel
- Starhill Global REIT
- FCOT
- AA REIT
SingTel
Coupling with the 3 cents of special dividends from the successful divestment of Netlink Trust and the
usual final interim dividend that SingTel have been giving out for the
past 3 years, we come up to a dividend of 9.8 cents per share for SingTel.
Investors of SingTel must bear in mind that the special dividend is an one-off event and is not likely to happen every single year. Nonetheless, with my increased exposure in SingTel, I look forward to more meaningful dividend from them in the coming future.
The dividends are paid on 10/01/18 and I've received $13.72.
Starhill Global REIT
SGR on the other hand has paid a 1.17 cents/share on 28/02/18 and based on
my holding as of the earlier CD, I've received $5.85.
This is translates to roughly 1.57% from my entry price @
0.745 earlier.
Similarly to SingTel, I've increased my exposure to SGR during the recent market weakness and currently SGR stands as my 4th biggest holding. I pretty much look forward to the upcoming dividend from SGR.
Frasers Commercial Trust
FCOT on the other hand had declared and paid a distribution of 2.4 cents on 1 March 2018 and a 0.8 cents advance distribution prior to it's private placement. I've held the shares of FCOT across the CD period and before the private placement, hence I'm entitled to both the dividend declared.
With that, I've received a total of $10.48 from FCOT in the first quarter of 2018. It's really interesting to see how resilent FCOT is today.
In the following updates, my distribution received from FCOT will still be reported but it will be less significant as I only held 8 legacy shares from the subsciption of DRIP earlier. Haha.
AIMS AMP Capital REIT
AA REIT has declared a 0.71 cents distribution and paid on 22/03/18. This is the first distribution after it's private placement in Novemeber.
Based on my holdings, I've received $2.84 for distribution this time round. Nothing too much to shout about. AA REIT continue to be a good income generator for my portfolio. However, to accumulate more shares, I demand some bargain on the price. I'd gladly love to accumulate more shares of AA REIT when Mr Market is perssimistic about him.
Both Wilmar and ComfortDelGro has declared their dividends and will undergo XD coincidentally on the same date - 3rd March 2018 which paydate will fall on 16 and 14 May respectively. I look forward to receiving my first ever dividend from CDG and Wilmar in the coming months and should opportunity arises, I would love to grab more of their shares.
Wait.. I should be strapping my fingers! Oh no.
In the next quarter, I'll be likely to receive dividends from:
Wilmar, CDG, AA REIT, SGR, FCOT.
Total dividends received in Q1 = $39.91
Total dividends received in 2018 = $39.91
Average dividends/months = $3.32
Having that said, I believe FY2018 Q2 will be a more "dividend-meaningful" period for me and I look forward to it.
Fillet-O-Fish check: 7 !!
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My march towards escaping the rat race. You remind yourself that nobody on his deathbed ever said, ‘I’d wish I’d spent more time at the office
Thursday, 29 March 2018
Thursday, 22 March 2018
Polytechnic Student with $3.63 As Net Worth - 1 Year Later
Some readers would have known about this when I wrote about my The 19 Year Old Year Review, Reflection & 2018 Resolution earlier.
I must first state that, I belong more to the earn more camp rather than the save more camp in this aspect. But this does not mean that I'm not saving, but I do have weak spots too. So do I belong to both camps?
By earning more, it makes it easier for you to afford things that you originally want to. I'll put into a simple example based on a fix percentage.
Assuming I'm taking home $1,000 every month and I'd allocate 50% to expenses and 30% for savings and 20% for dream funds. I'll be looking at an expenses of $500 a month, $300 each month for savings and $200 savings each month that I'll save up for extravagant things.
How about $2,000? Everything doubles! So does your savings! You'll be saving $600 each month now! How about if we twist the percentage a little to 40%? We're saving $800 each month!
Earn More or Save More?
It's about EARNING MORE and SAVING MORE not OR.
I vividly remember that I've entered 2017 with $3.63 as my net worth.
Yes, that's my net worth in 01/01/2017. Pathetic isn't it? But some would probably claim that there's a good number of polytechnic students or young adult that is in my shoes too! And I would say I can feel how sticky that situation is.
Fast forward to a year later, 31/12/2017, let's not talk about how much cash I hold.
I'll just share about my investment portfolio back then:
Disclaimer: I do have my emergency funds ready.
So how is this possible? I do not belong to a rich family, neither do I take pocket money from my parent.
I simply work harder and try to save more.
At the same time, I learn along the way and try out many ways to improve on my knowledge.
You definietly do not need investment to make it possible.
This topic here is not about investment. It's about managing your own finances!
Remember. Perspective is important.
One could see the image on top and my words in this post as an attempt to boast.
But, ultimately, I hope that this post will come across anyone in this sticky situation who will find it handy and motivational.
Playing too hard? Chasing after trends?
Most of the polytechnic students I know off are having a really really really good time chasing after trends, fashion, clubbing and busy having relationship. To be really honest, it's nothing wrong about having one, or doing any of the above. Just remember to not go beyond your limit.
Starving yourself to buy the pair of NMD you see above which is going to cost you $200-300 just because everyone around you has one? Do you truly NEED it? Or simply because you WANT it?
But it should not be done by depriving your 'needs' in order to get your 'wants'.
Relationship? I will not comment too much on this. But it's good to take note that you do not need to visit a country every single holiday. You do not need to spend money on extravagant items as well and not going to a different hotel every different special dates!
How about fanciful restaurants and cafe? Starbucks?
Chasing the life of others and trying out different ways to beautify your instagram account?? Wow. XXX has stayed in Equarious Hotel! They're at the Haidilao! Let's go to Japan to see Cherry Blossom! I want a car! That beautiful LV bag. That Rolex!!
Remember to not complain about not having money and talk about living from paychecks to paychecks!
Don't buy into my words? Buy into world 3rd richest man, Mr Buffett's words then!
Because I'm too busy to work!! I've too many projects. I'm too lazy etc.
Yet another excuse. If you strive to have some money in your pocket, then start moving to find some ways to get money.
I have projects too. I can still work. Why couldn't you?
Instead of taking the time to whine about not having the money or waiting for parents to give you.
Why not get yourself moving?
If you're too lazy and do not want to work, then learn to be self-contented and not live in the life of others.
You know the PROBLEM. You know the SOLUTION as well.
By not doing anything, the PROBLEM will not be solved!
Who doesn't want to have more money? Everyone wants to get rich. But by not doing anything, nothing is going to happen. If you want it, find a way to get it.
The mentality is very important here. Again, I repeat. You do not need to get into investment to have that extra dollar in your pocket.
Wait till your personal finance are sorted out, probably the next would be investment!
Read:
How many accounts does this 19 Year Old Student has?
You may also subscribe to receive my latest email updates here.
I must first state that, I belong more to the earn more camp rather than the save more camp in this aspect. But this does not mean that I'm not saving, but I do have weak spots too. So do I belong to both camps?
By earning more, it makes it easier for you to afford things that you originally want to. I'll put into a simple example based on a fix percentage.
Assuming I'm taking home $1,000 every month and I'd allocate 50% to expenses and 30% for savings and 20% for dream funds. I'll be looking at an expenses of $500 a month, $300 each month for savings and $200 savings each month that I'll save up for extravagant things.
How about $2,000? Everything doubles! So does your savings! You'll be saving $600 each month now! How about if we twist the percentage a little to 40%? We're saving $800 each month!
Earn More or Save More?
It's about EARNING MORE and SAVING MORE not OR.
I vividly remember that I've entered 2017 with $3.63 as my net worth.
Yes, that's my net worth in 01/01/2017. Pathetic isn't it? But some would probably claim that there's a good number of polytechnic students or young adult that is in my shoes too! And I would say I can feel how sticky that situation is.
Fast forward to a year later, 31/12/2017, let's not talk about how much cash I hold.
I'll just share about my investment portfolio back then:
Read more from my Portfolio Update here. |
Disclaimer: I do have my emergency funds ready.
So how is this possible? I do not belong to a rich family, neither do I take pocket money from my parent.
I simply work harder and try to save more.
At the same time, I learn along the way and try out many ways to improve on my knowledge.
You definietly do not need investment to make it possible.
This topic here is not about investment. It's about managing your own finances!
Remember. Perspective is important.
One could see the image on top and my words in this post as an attempt to boast.
But, ultimately, I hope that this post will come across anyone in this sticky situation who will find it handy and motivational.
Playing too hard? Chasing after trends?
Most of the polytechnic students I know off are having a really really really good time chasing after trends, fashion, clubbing and busy having relationship. To be really honest, it's nothing wrong about having one, or doing any of the above. Just remember to not go beyond your limit.
This pair of NMD looks nice isn't it? |
Starving yourself to buy the pair of NMD you see above which is going to cost you $200-300 just because everyone around you has one? Do you truly NEED it? Or simply because you WANT it?
But it should not be done by depriving your 'needs' in order to get your 'wants'.
Relationship? I will not comment too much on this. But it's good to take note that you do not need to visit a country every single holiday. You do not need to spend money on extravagant items as well and not going to a different hotel every different special dates!
How about fanciful restaurants and cafe? Starbucks?
Chasing the life of others and trying out different ways to beautify your instagram account?? Wow. XXX has stayed in Equarious Hotel! They're at the Haidilao! Let's go to Japan to see Cherry Blossom! I want a car! That beautiful LV bag. That Rolex!!
Remember to not complain about not having money and talk about living from paychecks to paychecks!
Don't buy into my words? Buy into world 3rd richest man, Mr Buffett's words then!
“Do not save what is left after spending; instead spend what is left after saving.”
― Warren Buffett
Because I'm too busy to work!! I've too many projects. I'm too lazy etc.
Yet another excuse. If you strive to have some money in your pocket, then start moving to find some ways to get money.
I have projects too. I can still work. Why couldn't you?
Instead of taking the time to whine about not having the money or waiting for parents to give you.
Why not get yourself moving?
If you're too lazy and do not want to work, then learn to be self-contented and not live in the life of others.
You know the PROBLEM. You know the SOLUTION as well.
By not doing anything, the PROBLEM will not be solved!
Who doesn't want to have more money? Everyone wants to get rich. But by not doing anything, nothing is going to happen. If you want it, find a way to get it.
The mentality is very important here. Again, I repeat. You do not need to get into investment to have that extra dollar in your pocket.
Wait till your personal finance are sorted out, probably the next would be investment!
Read:
How many accounts does this 19 Year Old Student has?
You may also subscribe to receive my latest email updates here.
Sunday, 18 March 2018
REIT IPO - Sasseur REIT Analysis
Sasseur REIT is a REIT that holds 4 retail outlet malls in the PRC with Sasseur Cayman as the sponsor for the IPO this time round.
1. Sponsors:
Sponsor for Sasseur REIT is Sasseur Cayman, with Mr Vito Xu as the chairman for Sasseur Cayman and Sasseur Group.
Sasseur Cayman is a privately-owned outlet mall operator in China which counts L Catterton Asia Advisors (formerly L Capital Asia Advisors) and Pingan Real Estate as strategic shareholders. L Catterson is an affiliate of LVMH while Pingan Real Estate is a property giant managing about RMB 300 billion worth of asset.
Cornerstone Investor includes for Sasseur REIT includes:
1. Adroitt Ideology (Subsidiary of JD.com - China's e-commerce giant)
2. Bangkok Life Assurance Pcl.
3. CKK Holdings Pte Ltd (Charles & Keith)
4. Credit Suisse AG, Singapore Branch and Credit Suisse AG, Hong Kong Branch
5. DBS Bank Limited
6. Entrepolis Limited
7. Great Achievement & Success Pte Ltd
8. Haitong International Financial Products (Singapore)
9. TMB Asset Management Company Limited
The cornerstone tranche makes up about 45% of Sasseur total offering size and it also seems like there is quite a fair bit of support from some institution.
Taking a look at Sasseur Group on their official site, we will be able to find that they have 9 retail outlet properties spread out across China. However, in this IPO, we're only able to see 4 properties.
This in another word suggests to us that there are 5 other properties which constitute to roughly 64% of their Sasseur Group's overall NLA that have not been injected into this REIT. Should Sasseur decide to sell them to their REIT to realize the gains, we might be able to see some funds raising coming up. Alternatively, they may also tap onto some Ping An's property for third-party asset acquisition in the coming future and Sasseur seems to be eyeing on Xi'an and Guiyang's property to be next.
The other 5 retail outlets are as follow:
Sasseur (Xi'an) Outlets - 370,000 sqm (Under construction)
Sasseur (Zhongdong Changchun) Outlets - 370,000sqm
Sasseur (Nanjing) Art Commercial Plaza - 229,560 sqm, 95% leased
Sasseur (Hangzhou) Art Commercial Plaza - 45,873 sqm, 95% leased
Sasseur (Guiyang) Art Commercial Plaza - 260,000sqm (opened in 2017)
Structure
Trustee: BVI Holding Companies
REIT manager: Sasseur Asset Management Pte Ltd
Nothing too much about the information below..
Management Fees: 10% per annum of distributable income
Performance Fees: 25% difference in DPU
2. What type of real estate do they hold?
Property type: Retail Outlet Mall
Total GFA: 374,603.3 sqft
Total NLA: 304,573.1 sqft
The 4 retail outlet malls in PRC are as follow:
1. Sasseur (Chongqing) Outlets
2. Sasseur (Bishan) Outlets - Situated in Chongqing too
3. Sasseur (Hefei) Outlets
4. Sasseur (Kunming) Outlets.
Information on properties can be found below:
To start off, China imposes expiry on land use rights and only offer at most a 70-year lease for its residential properties, and typically shorter for commercial properties. From the table above, we will be able to identify that their average expiry of land use rights is about 37.5 year on average.
Due to this factor, their properties are in fact depreciating more than it could appreciate.
Even if there is appreciation in the real estate prices, this property lease or rather land expiry will actually cause the price of this property to fall back to square one. Hence, I do not think that organic growth will be really shiny here.
Similarly, from the table, we will also be able to spot that Sasseur REIT has an average occupancy rate at 95.1%, the occupancy rate might seem high but I do have something in the later part which is tickling me a little.
Across the 4 properties, Sasseur REIT has:
Total GFA: 371,603.3 sqm
Total NLA: 304,573.1 sqm
Yes, this is about 20% of their area across this 4 properties are not leasable
Sasseur REIT's tenant spread across multiple industries , from cinema operators to F&B outlets with quite a few luxury goods tenant like Gucci, Hugo Boss, Salvatore Ferragamo etc.
3. WALE:
The IPO portfolio has a WALE of 3.2 years based on NLA.
This is relatively low as compared to its peers like CRCT and BHG Retail REIT.
By default, as an investor, we will be more comforted when we see a longer WALE, right?
Maybe not so much after I see this, I thought to myself.
And there is about 90% of Sasseur's tenant that is subscribing to this method of leases!
Looking at the bright side, tenants might not mind staying on their premises when the market is bad or that they do not have many customers. This is simply because I do not need to pay a fixed rent every month! This approach, on the other hand, secures your tenant, in a pretty weak way.
But on the other hand, this will also mean that my dividends received will be swinging accordingly to their sales! At times when there are great sales, I will be receiving some handsome DPU, similarly, I might not receive a single penny when they do not sell anything!
4. Net Asset Value (NAV)
I will also need a greater margin of safety if I were to invest in this piece of business with the amount of risk I'm presented to feel comfortable. Hence, what's in it's NAV column, we will have to be seeing a lower number than it's price.
With the total net asset at around $921.277 million and post offering at 1,180,300,000 units, this will be somewhere around 78 cents for each share.
An indicative offering price range around 0.80 - now this price translates to a slight premium over Sasseur's NAV. In that case, probably not for me.
(Please refer to unaudited pro forma financial statement below in point 5)
5. Gearing
This is a really decent set of gearing I'm seeing here at 30.3% which is relatively low. In some other sense, there is plenty of room for them to take up debts to fund their upcoming acquisitions.
However, taking a slightly closer look at their unaudited pro forma financial statement, I'm looking at something that is slightly different.
With total liabilities at S$ 585,030,000 and total assets at S$ 1,506,307,000. I'm getting a ratio of around 38.83. I might be wrong somewhere but hmm...
6. Dividend Yield
Distribution will be made on a semi-annual basis, which means twice a year.
First distribution is expected to come in on 30/09/18 for the period ended 30/06/18
Sasseur REIT will be distributing 100% distributable income up to 31/12/19.
Sasseur promises a 7% yield in 2018 and mid 7% in 2019. However, I'm not comfortable with this number I'm seeing here.
For the risk I'm facing for this investment, I will demand a greater dividend yield as compared to Sasseur's peer like BHG Retail REIT and CapitaRetail China Trust to compensate of the risk.
But wait. There's already one risk about its DPU due to its business structure discussed earlier.
For a greater risk, I demand a greater reward!!
7. When will their IPO take place?
This IPO is looking to seek $600 million from the public.
8. Peer Comparison
The 2 closest peer I can find from SGX would be CapitaRetail China Trust and BHG Retail REIT and I've done up a simple table for some basic comparison. However, do note that despite they are retail properties in PRC, they differ a little as Sasseur operates slightly differently.
Risk:
1. Currency Fluctuation Risk (SGD-RMB)
As shared in my 2 earlier REIT IPO Analysis on Cromwell and Keppel KBS REIT, earnings for Sasseur is also in a foreign-dominated currency. And in this case, we are looking at RMB, this exposes us to currency fluctuation risk. Which will mean that if RMB depreciate against SGD, we will see a less significant distribution?
2. Business Model Risk
As Sasseur REIT is very heavily dependent on its tenant's performance, this will come into the picture as a double edge sword. This is due to sales driven income by property which calculates rental by turn over as opposed to fixed income. In another word, inconsistent dividends, and I'm not a big fan of this.
3. Geographical Concentration Risk and Property Expiry
For those looking for exposure to owning some assets in China, Sasseur REIT might be one REIT that you can dip your toes into. Aside from this, we have BHG Retail REIT, MGCCT, CapitaRetail China Trust. Once again, being a property in China, which is subjected to property expiry rules, this is not a very cool thing and will limit organic NAV growth.
All 4 properties of Sasseur or in fact, all properties that Sasseur Group holds are in PRC. This will provide you with geographical concentration risk. Should China market face some headwind, this investment will go together with the flow.
I might be wrong, and I hold no crystal ball but having that said, I'm not exactly comfortable with the risk that I'm seeing here and I'll be giving this IPO a miss.
IPO prospectus can be found here.
Sasseur's ST news can be found here.
CRCT 4QFY2017 financial presentation can be found here.
BHG Retail REIT 4QFY2017 financial presentation can be found here.
Read:
REIT IPO - Keppel-KBS US REIT
Edited: 25/03/2018 1:14PM :
There have been a great number of financial bloggers covering the IPO analysis on Sasseur REIT and I would advise that readers take a look at their comprehensive and wonderful analysis as well to get a better understanding of Sasseur REIT.
Please find the link below:
ProButterfly - Qualitative Analysis of Upcoming Sasseur REIT IPO
B, Forever Financial Freedom - Sasseur REIT IPO Analysis
SG Budget Babe - IPO Analysis : Sasseur REIT
Mr IPO - Sassuer REIT
Financial Horse - Sasseur REIT: Why I am so disappointed by this 7.5% yielding China REIT
Sasseur REIT |
Sponsor for Sasseur REIT is Sasseur Cayman, with Mr Vito Xu as the chairman for Sasseur Cayman and Sasseur Group.
Sasseur Cayman is a privately-owned outlet mall operator in China which counts L Catterton Asia Advisors (formerly L Capital Asia Advisors) and Pingan Real Estate as strategic shareholders. L Catterson is an affiliate of LVMH while Pingan Real Estate is a property giant managing about RMB 300 billion worth of asset.
Cornerstone Investor includes for Sasseur REIT includes:
1. Adroitt Ideology (Subsidiary of JD.com - China's e-commerce giant)
2. Bangkok Life Assurance Pcl.
3. CKK Holdings Pte Ltd (Charles & Keith)
4. Credit Suisse AG, Singapore Branch and Credit Suisse AG, Hong Kong Branch
5. DBS Bank Limited
6. Entrepolis Limited
7. Great Achievement & Success Pte Ltd
8. Haitong International Financial Products (Singapore)
9. TMB Asset Management Company Limited
The cornerstone tranche makes up about 45% of Sasseur total offering size and it also seems like there is quite a fair bit of support from some institution.
Taking a look at Sasseur Group on their official site, we will be able to find that they have 9 retail outlet properties spread out across China. However, in this IPO, we're only able to see 4 properties.
This in another word suggests to us that there are 5 other properties which constitute to roughly 64% of their Sasseur Group's overall NLA that have not been injected into this REIT. Should Sasseur decide to sell them to their REIT to realize the gains, we might be able to see some funds raising coming up. Alternatively, they may also tap onto some Ping An's property for third-party asset acquisition in the coming future and Sasseur seems to be eyeing on Xi'an and Guiyang's property to be next.
The other 5 retail outlets are as follow:
Sasseur (Xi'an) Outlets - 370,000 sqm (Under construction)
Sasseur (Zhongdong Changchun) Outlets - 370,000sqm
Sasseur (Nanjing) Art Commercial Plaza - 229,560 sqm, 95% leased
Sasseur (Hangzhou) Art Commercial Plaza - 45,873 sqm, 95% leased
Sasseur (Guiyang) Art Commercial Plaza - 260,000sqm (opened in 2017)
Source: Sasseur REIT Prospectus - Page 24 |
Structure
Source: Sasseur REIT Prospectus - Page 50 |
REIT manager: Sasseur Asset Management Pte Ltd
Nothing too much about the information below..
Management Fees: 10% per annum of distributable income
Performance Fees: 25% difference in DPU
2. What type of real estate do they hold?
Property type: Retail Outlet Mall
Total GFA: 374,603.3 sqft
Total NLA: 304,573.1 sqft
Source: Sasseur Official Website - Sasseur Chongqing |
The 4 retail outlet malls in PRC are as follow:
1. Sasseur (Chongqing) Outlets
2. Sasseur (Bishan) Outlets - Situated in Chongqing too
3. Sasseur (Hefei) Outlets
4. Sasseur (Kunming) Outlets.
Information on properties can be found below:
Source: Sasseur REIT Prospectus - Page 14 |
To start off, China imposes expiry on land use rights and only offer at most a 70-year lease for its residential properties, and typically shorter for commercial properties. From the table above, we will be able to identify that their average expiry of land use rights is about 37.5 year on average.
Due to this factor, their properties are in fact depreciating more than it could appreciate.
Even if there is appreciation in the real estate prices, this property lease or rather land expiry will actually cause the price of this property to fall back to square one. Hence, I do not think that organic growth will be really shiny here.
Similarly, from the table, we will also be able to spot that Sasseur REIT has an average occupancy rate at 95.1%, the occupancy rate might seem high but I do have something in the later part which is tickling me a little.
Across the 4 properties, Sasseur REIT has:
Total GFA: 371,603.3 sqm
Total NLA: 304,573.1 sqm
Yes, this is about 20% of their area across this 4 properties are not leasable
Sasseur REIT's tenant spread across multiple industries , from cinema operators to F&B outlets with quite a few luxury goods tenant like Gucci, Hugo Boss, Salvatore Ferragamo etc.
3. WALE:
The IPO portfolio has a WALE of 3.2 years based on NLA.
This is relatively low as compared to its peers like CRCT and BHG Retail REIT.
Source: Sasseur REIT Prospectus - Page 16 |
Source: Sasseur REIT Prospectus - Page 41 |
Maybe not so much after I see this, I thought to myself.
And there is about 90% of Sasseur's tenant that is subscribing to this method of leases!
Looking at the bright side, tenants might not mind staying on their premises when the market is bad or that they do not have many customers. This is simply because I do not need to pay a fixed rent every month! This approach, on the other hand, secures your tenant, in a pretty weak way.
But on the other hand, this will also mean that my dividends received will be swinging accordingly to their sales! At times when there are great sales, I will be receiving some handsome DPU, similarly, I might not receive a single penny when they do not sell anything!
4. Net Asset Value (NAV)
I will also need a greater margin of safety if I were to invest in this piece of business with the amount of risk I'm presented to feel comfortable. Hence, what's in it's NAV column, we will have to be seeing a lower number than it's price.
With the total net asset at around $921.277 million and post offering at 1,180,300,000 units, this will be somewhere around 78 cents for each share.
An indicative offering price range around 0.80 - now this price translates to a slight premium over Sasseur's NAV. In that case, probably not for me.
(Please refer to unaudited pro forma financial statement below in point 5)
5. Gearing
Source: Sasseur REIT Prospectus - Page 163 |
This is a really decent set of gearing I'm seeing here at 30.3% which is relatively low. In some other sense, there is plenty of room for them to take up debts to fund their upcoming acquisitions.
However, taking a slightly closer look at their unaudited pro forma financial statement, I'm looking at something that is slightly different.
Source: Sasseur REIT Prospectus - Page 155 |
6. Dividend Yield
Source: Sasseur REIT Prospectus - Page 66 |
First distribution is expected to come in on 30/09/18 for the period ended 30/06/18
Sasseur REIT will be distributing 100% distributable income up to 31/12/19.
Sasseur promises a 7% yield in 2018 and mid 7% in 2019. However, I'm not comfortable with this number I'm seeing here.
For the risk I'm facing for this investment, I will demand a greater dividend yield as compared to Sasseur's peer like BHG Retail REIT and CapitaRetail China Trust to compensate of the risk.
But wait. There's already one risk about its DPU due to its business structure discussed earlier.
For a greater risk, I demand a greater reward!!
7. When will their IPO take place?
Singapore Public Offer: 22 – 26 March 2018
Expected listing on the SGX-ST: 28 March 2018, 9am
8. Peer Comparison
The 2 closest peer I can find from SGX would be CapitaRetail China Trust and BHG Retail REIT and I've done up a simple table for some basic comparison. However, do note that despite they are retail properties in PRC, they differ a little as Sasseur operates slightly differently.
Peer Comparison |
Risk:
1. Currency Fluctuation Risk (SGD-RMB)
As shared in my 2 earlier REIT IPO Analysis on Cromwell and Keppel KBS REIT, earnings for Sasseur is also in a foreign-dominated currency. And in this case, we are looking at RMB, this exposes us to currency fluctuation risk. Which will mean that if RMB depreciate against SGD, we will see a less significant distribution?
2. Business Model Risk
As Sasseur REIT is very heavily dependent on its tenant's performance, this will come into the picture as a double edge sword. This is due to sales driven income by property which calculates rental by turn over as opposed to fixed income. In another word, inconsistent dividends, and I'm not a big fan of this.
3. Geographical Concentration Risk and Property Expiry
For those looking for exposure to owning some assets in China, Sasseur REIT might be one REIT that you can dip your toes into. Aside from this, we have BHG Retail REIT, MGCCT, CapitaRetail China Trust. Once again, being a property in China, which is subjected to property expiry rules, this is not a very cool thing and will limit organic NAV growth.
All 4 properties of Sasseur or in fact, all properties that Sasseur Group holds are in PRC. This will provide you with geographical concentration risk. Should China market face some headwind, this investment will go together with the flow.
I might be wrong, and I hold no crystal ball but having that said, I'm not exactly comfortable with the risk that I'm seeing here and I'll be giving this IPO a miss.
IPO prospectus can be found here.
Sasseur's ST news can be found here.
CRCT 4QFY2017 financial presentation can be found here.
BHG Retail REIT 4QFY2017 financial presentation can be found here.
Read:
REIT IPO - Keppel-KBS US REIT
Edited: 25/03/2018 1:14PM :
There have been a great number of financial bloggers covering the IPO analysis on Sasseur REIT and I would advise that readers take a look at their comprehensive and wonderful analysis as well to get a better understanding of Sasseur REIT.
Please find the link below:
ProButterfly - Qualitative Analysis of Upcoming Sasseur REIT IPO
B, Forever Financial Freedom - Sasseur REIT IPO Analysis
SG Budget Babe - IPO Analysis : Sasseur REIT
Mr IPO - Sassuer REIT
Financial Horse - Sasseur REIT: Why I am so disappointed by this 7.5% yielding China REIT
Kyith, Investment Moat - Sasseur REIT – My Short Take on this Messy China Retail Outlet REIT
SmallCapAsia - 7 Things You should Know About Sasseur REIT IPO
TheFifthPerson - Sasseur REIT IPO – 5 key things you need to know before you invest
Reitit - Quick Analysis on Sasseur REIT
Tuesday, 13 March 2018
SGR's Analysis (FA, TA) - Buying some dustbins in Wisma
I was just talking about increasing dividend income in my portfolio update earlier for February.
Many would also be aware that I've been trying to add onto my holdings whenever I see some value or that Mr Market like what Benjamin Graham stated in his book 'The Intelligent Investor' is being moody or irrationale.
And in a blink of eye, only days into March.
It happened.
Mr Market seem to be a little pessimistic about Starhill Global REIT and it's shareholder is being punished for this.
I took this opportunity presented by Mr Market to buy somemore dustbins from Ngee Ann City and Wisma.
See. I told you, I'm buying dustbin.
Back to SGR. I've entered an extremely small position with them a year ago at 73.5 cents.
Fast forward to a year later, this opportunity comes back once again and I made use of this opportunity to accumulate another 1,200 shares of Starhill Global REIT at 0.71. In this case, I'm buying more dustbin.
Why would a teenage fella look to buy some dustbin? Strange.
Properties
So what do they own?
SGR owns commercial properties (offices and shopping centers) across 5 countries - Singapore, Malaysia, Australia, China and Japan, for which most of their revenues are derived from shopping center rental income.
Singapore properties: Wisma Atria, Ngee Ann City
Malaysia properties: Lot 10, Starhill Gallery
Australia properties: David Jones Building, Plaza Arcade (Perth), Myer Center (Adelaide)
China properties: Renhe Spring Zongbei (Chengdu)
Japan properties: Daikanyama, Nakameguro Place, Ebisu Fort (Tokyo)
A big chunk (62.5%) of SGR's earning is derived from Singapore while the rest is derived from Australia (22.1%), Malaysia (13.2%) and 2.2% from it's property in Tokyo and Chengdu.
A fairly big part is contributed by Toshin's master lease which took up 21.1% of SGR's gross rental. Toshin's lease will be expiring in 2025. Having Toshin's share, it's both dangerous and beneficial for SGR.
With Toshin's master lease, SGR can rest a little on aggressively finding active leases. But this will also mean that if Toshin decide not to renew this master lease on 2025, they will be having some headache. But it's pretty much like FCOT's case which I've talked about previously. It will be good if they diversify themself a little and not over rely on one tenant. But guess, we will leave it for 7 years later.
NAV
Taking a look at SGR's latest financial statement, we can see that it's NAV stands at 92 cents/share. In this case, with the price at 71 cents. We're actually buying a 500k HDB for a price of 386k!
Ok.. Sorry. We're buying SGR at a discount of 22.8% off it's book value.
But is this the end? No!! More to go!!
Gearing
It's important to know the gearing for a REIT. Gearing refers to the level of a company’s debt related to its capital, usually expressed in percentage form. In this aspect, we're looking at how much they "owe".
It's never good to buy a company that has a lot of debt. But eventually debt is one thing that will fuel it's growth and espeically for counters like REIT, where they will need to borrow money in order to acquire properties as they do not have much retained earnings. REITs will have to pay out 90% of their income to it's shareholder which will result in them having little retained earnings.
It's not desirable to have a high gearing for REIT. Coupling with the fact that they have little retained earnings, REIT will look for rights issue when they want to acquire properties. This is when the REIT will come to you asking for money. In this event, if you do not subscribe to the REIT, your shares will be diluted and you're faced with a lesser value.
Technical Analysis
Thoughts
Please remember the disclaimer!
Disclaimer: All information published on this site is only meant for general information purpose. No warranties should be carried out on the action that is taken based on information found in this blog and no liabilities will be undertaken by the owner for any losses/damages incurred from the use of this information.
SGR's 2Q FY2017/18 Investor's Presentation Slide can be found here.
SGR's 2Q FY2017/18 Financial Statement can be found here.
Screenshot taken from "Portfolio - February 2018" |
And in a blink of eye, only days into March.
It happened.
Mr Market seem to be a little pessimistic about Starhill Global REIT and it's shareholder is being punished for this.
I took this opportunity presented by Mr Market to buy somemore dustbins from Ngee Ann City and Wisma.
See. I told you, I'm buying dustbin.
Back to SGR. I've entered an extremely small position with them a year ago at 73.5 cents.
Fast forward to a year later, this opportunity comes back once again and I made use of this opportunity to accumulate another 1,200 shares of Starhill Global REIT at 0.71. In this case, I'm buying more dustbin.
Why would a teenage fella look to buy some dustbin? Strange.
Properties
So what do they own?
SGR owns commercial properties (offices and shopping centers) across 5 countries - Singapore, Malaysia, Australia, China and Japan, for which most of their revenues are derived from shopping center rental income.
Singapore properties: Wisma Atria, Ngee Ann City
Malaysia properties: Lot 10, Starhill Gallery
Australia properties: David Jones Building, Plaza Arcade (Perth), Myer Center (Adelaide)
China properties: Renhe Spring Zongbei (Chengdu)
Japan properties: Daikanyama, Nakameguro Place, Ebisu Fort (Tokyo)
Source: SPH - Wisma Atria |
Source: SGR's 2Q FY2017/18 Investor Presentation - Slide 15 |
A fairly big part is contributed by Toshin's master lease which took up 21.1% of SGR's gross rental. Toshin's lease will be expiring in 2025. Having Toshin's share, it's both dangerous and beneficial for SGR.
With Toshin's master lease, SGR can rest a little on aggressively finding active leases. But this will also mean that if Toshin decide not to renew this master lease on 2025, they will be having some headache. But it's pretty much like FCOT's case which I've talked about previously. It will be good if they diversify themself a little and not over rely on one tenant. But guess, we will leave it for 7 years later.
NAV
Taking a look at SGR's latest financial statement, we can see that it's NAV stands at 92 cents/share. In this case, with the price at 71 cents. We're actually buying a 500k HDB for a price of 386k!
Source: Page 17 - SGR 2Q FY2017/18 Financial Statement |
Ok.. Sorry. We're buying SGR at a discount of 22.8% off it's book value.
But is this the end? No!! More to go!!
Gearing
It's important to know the gearing for a REIT. Gearing refers to the level of a company’s debt related to its capital, usually expressed in percentage form. In this aspect, we're looking at how much they "owe".
It's never good to buy a company that has a lot of debt. But eventually debt is one thing that will fuel it's growth and espeically for counters like REIT, where they will need to borrow money in order to acquire properties as they do not have much retained earnings. REITs will have to pay out 90% of their income to it's shareholder which will result in them having little retained earnings.
It's not desirable to have a high gearing for REIT. Coupling with the fact that they have little retained earnings, REIT will look for rights issue when they want to acquire properties. This is when the REIT will come to you asking for money. In this event, if you do not subscribe to the REIT, your shares will be diluted and you're faced with a lesser value.
SGR has gearing of 35.3%
According to MAS ceiling of 45%, SGR does have some room for them to take up debt if they were to acquire properties without a rights issue.
Lease Expiry/WALE
Source: Q2 FY2017/18 Investor Presentation - Slide 20 |
Seems like most of their leases are expiring in FY18/19 and beyond FY2020/21.
Looking at the earlier one, we see 35.7% of their leases based on NLA that will expire in 2018/19.
This 35.7% we see consist of Malaysia's master lease. This is one thing investors of SGR would like Should the renewual falls through, DPU will continue to fall and so do price as investor's proceed to sell their shares of SGR.
At a WALE of 6.4 years. It might seem a little more comforting.
Debt Maturity
Source: Q2 FY2017/18 Investor Presentation - Slide 14 |
Weighted average debt maturity comes at 4 year with most of it's repayment taking place after FY2020. The scary part should come in between FY2021-23 where most of their payments are due.
DPU
This is something that every investor of REIT is looking out for.
However, we see some headwind in it's Orchard properties and DPU had decreased in 2017. With properties like Plaza Arcade and Lot 10 due by 1Q2018, we should be able to see some positivity out of this where SGR's rental income will increase. This will brings DPU higher than what we see now.
Taking 4.8 cents DPU in 2017 into account, we're looking at a yield of 6.7%, which look relatively delicious. However we must also bear in mind that this higher yield offered by SGR is in compensation for the greater risk we are participating in as compared to other REITs like MCT.
Technical Analysis
Taking a look at the chart. Seems like there's a big bear that ambushed SGR from behind. Price had fallen sharply below 50D, 100D MA and EMA. Price had also fallen below lower band of Bollinger Band with MACD crossing signal line southwards. RSI on the other hand suggest that SGR is over-sold today with a relatively healthy amount of seller we're seeing here today.
Some level of resistance can be identified at 72.5 cents, 75 and 77 cents while support can be seen at 69 cents and 67 cents upon breaching 70 cents support.
Some level of resistance can be identified at 72.5 cents, 75 and 77 cents while support can be seen at 69 cents and 67 cents upon breaching 70 cents support.
While it certainly does not look very beautiful for SGR, it seems like some opportunities might be presenting itself. I might be wrong. I don't know.
Thoughts
The closest match I could get would probably be MCT. However, as MCT is trading at a premium with a relatively lower yield, the offer does not seem as compelling as what I see in SGR today. On a side note, MCT does have a really impressive management which is really proactive and ensuring their unit holders get the most out of it, however for that case, it's compensated by the premium we see over it's book.
It's nothing wrong to pay a slightly bigger price tag for a lesser risk and wonderful management. Good things usually comes with a premium. However, sadly, my wish to buy a dustbin in Vivo City has yet to materialize and I've failed to accumulate them when the boat comes. I do love Vivo City.
Nonetheless, should things turn out worser than expectations for SGR, I do have some margin of safety from the discount I receive from it's book price. A futher drop in price will just make SGR looks more attractive to me. Definietly one would say that the NAV might drop, but I'm comfortable with this risk I'm taking. Another important thing to remember is that the initiation of position with SGR is for income and not growth.
There might be some surprise element of capital appreciation when price move closer to it's book value but I'm in for the income SGR is able to offer me for the time being. To be more conservative, I will look at SGR with a yield of 6% which represents with a target of 4.3 cents DPU. Am I over-expecting too much from SGR? I don't think so.
There might be some surprise element of capital appreciation when price move closer to it's book value but I'm in for the income SGR is able to offer me for the time being. To be more conservative, I will look at SGR with a yield of 6% which represents with a target of 4.3 cents DPU. Am I over-expecting too much from SGR? I don't think so.
Disclaimer: All information published on this site is only meant for general information purpose. No warranties should be carried out on the action that is taken based on information found in this blog and no liabilities will be undertaken by the owner for any losses/damages incurred from the use of this information.
SGR's 2Q FY2017/18 Investor's Presentation Slide can be found here.
SGR's 2Q FY2017/18 Financial Statement can be found here.
Friday, 9 March 2018
Tokyo, Japan (Autumn 2017) - Part 2
Firstly, I would need to apologize as I've forgotten about the continuation of the earlier post on Tokyo (Autumn) - Part 1. Please forgive me and allow me to continue today, after almost two months and I'm missing Tokyo :(
Day 4:Harajuku/Meiji Shrine:
Meiji Shrine is located just outside Harajuku station. The shrine is dedicated to Emperor Meiji and Empress Shoken in 1920 and was destroyed in the WWII, but rebuilt shortly after. This shrine, unlike the temple is for the Shinto religion. Despite many of the practices are similar, they are actually 2 different religion here in Japan.
After visiting Meiji Shrine, you may wish to drop by Harajuku. In Harajuku, there's both shopping for the teenagers and adults. Fortunately enough, there was a wedding held at Meiji Shrine when I was visiting the shrine. It's really an eye opener to witness a local Japanese wedding!
Takeshita Dori is the street with teenage culture
Omotesando on the other hand is the adult street that is filled with boutiques and cafes.
For the day there, I had my dinner in a local departmental store. There's so many food for you to choose from and you might probably end up spending more money eating here than in a restaurant.
Day 5: Fujiko Musuem/Shinjuku:
This is also the day I actually had my biggest regret. Fujiko Musuem is located in Kawasaki City and you might need to take some time to travel to. I've proceeded to Kawasaki early in the morning, reaching Fujiko Musuem around noon in an attempt to visit one of my favourite childhood cartoon - Doraemon.
However, sadly as I did not have the tickets before hand, I was refused entry and I've to make my move, back to Shinjuku, the second place I'm visiting today. To anyone that would like to visit Fujiko Musuem, please reserve your ticket before hand and collect from Lawson (the convenience store). There is no ticket that is sold on-site (just as I thought there is..)
There is a shuttle bus that ferry you from Noborito Station to Fujiko Musuem at a certain time interval, which you may want to refer to the table on their official site. Alternatively, you can alight at Noborito station and proceed to the bus terminal below. Head towards Berth 6 and wait for the bus 16 towards Fujiko Musuem. (Note: You've to pay for the shuttle bus as well and it cost 250 yen/trip, which you can pay via your bus pass)
Shinjuku
Basically shopping, shopping and shopping. There's a really big Adidas, Kinokuniya and Takashimaya there which I've actually spent some time in. Unfortunately, I did not take too much photo in Shinjuku. Not forgetting there's quite a fair bit of food there as well.
Hence to those who love to shop, Shinjuku is another place you might want to visit :)
Day 6: Ueno:
In Ueno, there is a stretch that sells many protective gears and equipment for rider. There's also a hell lot of bikes there for sale. New, big beast of 1000ccs, 7 storey building filled with them. Each different floors for different type of ride. Also, another place which I've spent quite some time at.
Make sure to not get lost there as Ueno Station is really big. And not to get confused with their different stations there like JR, Tokyo Metro and Shinkansen... which are all Ueno Station
Do try out their "roadside store" as well! It's something that is very rare here in Japan! And not forgetting their Izakaya (Japanese informal pub) for those who want to chill out after work! There's also a stretch behind the station which sells plenty of second hand electronic goods like camera.
Day 4:Harajuku/Meiji Shrine:
Meiji Shrine is located just outside Harajuku station. The shrine is dedicated to Emperor Meiji and Empress Shoken in 1920 and was destroyed in the WWII, but rebuilt shortly after. This shrine, unlike the temple is for the Shinto religion. Despite many of the practices are similar, they are actually 2 different religion here in Japan.
After visiting Meiji Shrine, you may wish to drop by Harajuku. In Harajuku, there's both shopping for the teenagers and adults. Fortunately enough, there was a wedding held at Meiji Shrine when I was visiting the shrine. It's really an eye opener to witness a local Japanese wedding!
Takeshita Dori is the street with teenage culture
Omotesando on the other hand is the adult street that is filled with boutiques and cafes.
For the day there, I had my dinner in a local departmental store. There's so many food for you to choose from and you might probably end up spending more money eating here than in a restaurant.
Day 5: Fujiko Musuem/Shinjuku:
This is also the day I actually had my biggest regret. Fujiko Musuem is located in Kawasaki City and you might need to take some time to travel to. I've proceeded to Kawasaki early in the morning, reaching Fujiko Musuem around noon in an attempt to visit one of my favourite childhood cartoon - Doraemon.
However, sadly as I did not have the tickets before hand, I was refused entry and I've to make my move, back to Shinjuku, the second place I'm visiting today. To anyone that would like to visit Fujiko Musuem, please reserve your ticket before hand and collect from Lawson (the convenience store). There is no ticket that is sold on-site (just as I thought there is..)
There is a shuttle bus that ferry you from Noborito Station to Fujiko Musuem at a certain time interval, which you may want to refer to the table on their official site. Alternatively, you can alight at Noborito station and proceed to the bus terminal below. Head towards Berth 6 and wait for the bus 16 towards Fujiko Musuem. (Note: You've to pay for the shuttle bus as well and it cost 250 yen/trip, which you can pay via your bus pass)
You'll be greeted by a big Doraemon backdrop for you to take your photo from in Noborito Station |
Shinjuku
Basically shopping, shopping and shopping. There's a really big Adidas, Kinokuniya and Takashimaya there which I've actually spent some time in. Unfortunately, I did not take too much photo in Shinjuku. Not forgetting there's quite a fair bit of food there as well.
Hence to those who love to shop, Shinjuku is another place you might want to visit :)
Day 6: Ueno:
In Ueno, there is a stretch that sells many protective gears and equipment for rider. There's also a hell lot of bikes there for sale. New, big beast of 1000ccs, 7 storey building filled with them. Each different floors for different type of ride. Also, another place which I've spent quite some time at.
Make sure to not get lost there as Ueno Station is really big. And not to get confused with their different stations there like JR, Tokyo Metro and Shinkansen... which are all Ueno Station
Anyone saw Shin Chan's house direction? |
Underground of Ueno Station (Departmental store upstairs) |
Do try out their "roadside store" as well! It's something that is very rare here in Japan! And not forgetting their Izakaya (Japanese informal pub) for those who want to chill out after work! There's also a stretch behind the station which sells plenty of second hand electronic goods like camera.
"Road-side store" in Japan |
Fresh Blue fin Tuna + Salmon with rice for only 500 yen (S$6). Not forgetting free flow of soy sauce and tea! |
I really miss those 'Izakayas' feeling |
And this marks the end of my small little Tokyo trip as I've to get back to work!!
I miss Tokyo. There's just too much in Tokyo for me to explore and another biggest regret is the relatively short duration that I've there. Nonetheless, I shall see you soon.
Up next - Sapporo, Hokkaido - Winter :)
Do look out for the next travel post. I know it's overdue. But please pardon me!
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