Portfolio - November 2018

Current Portfolio (30/11/2018)

No.	Counters	No. of Shares	Market Price (SGD)	Total Value (SGD) based on market price	Allocation %
1.	SingTel	1,400	3.08	4,312.00	30.47%
2.	APTT	11,500	0.167	1,920.50	13.57%
3.	Wilmar Intl	500	3.04	1,520.00	10.74%
4.	Starhill Global REIT	1,700	0.67	1,139.00	8.05%
5.	Far East Orchard	800	1.26	1,008.00	7.12%
6.	AIMS AMP Cap REIT	400	1.36	544.00	3.84%
7.	ComfortDelGro	100	2.10	228.00	1.48%
8.	Singapore Saving Bonds	1	1,500.00	1,500.00	10.60%
9.	Warchest	1	2,000.00	2,000.00	14.13%
	Total SGD:			14,153.50	100.00%

November too, like October had been a really exciting month for investors, including myself. With the volatile market swinging from up and down, there has been many traders around that are rejoicing over such days! 

Recalling back... I still miss the winter in Japan while I typed this out a year ago!

Read: Portfolio - November 2017

In November, I've made a small trade for YZJ right before the announcement at 1.26 and had divested shortly after at 1.31, pocketing about 3+%. And yes, this is how significiant the transaction is to such small amounts, stripping almost 1% of my profit down! 

But once again, the above trade is one of the experiment I'm doing and with a fair share of luck, I'm really glad it is went in the right direction. 

Next up, in November, we witnessed the crash of APTT once the guidance have been announced. During this event, I've ultilized a small fraction of my opportunity funds with some additional cash injection to get some APTT from the market, something which I believe most investors steer away from.




And I'm in the midst of adding more counters to my portfolio should opportunity presents. I also do hope to revamp my portfolio or rather declutter it a little in the upcoming months. 

Read: Getting Some APTT

To add on a little on why I got myself some APTT, you may wish to read a little on my comment below: 

I do agree very much with your take that the sunset business APTT is engaged in is of a concern, in fact with a sea of red today, there is indeed many opportunity that is up for grab.

When the guidance is announced, Mr Market had reacted very strongly to it and had been extremely pessimistic with APTT, which I would try to be a little optimistic when I look at such situation, hopefully I will be a little more rational.

There is a considerable amount of risk to take when one were to invest in this company here, especially when they have a relatively huge debt with them and not forgetting on the risk for interest to be go up in the future.

The rise of interest will essentially means that APTT will be paying more money out of their earnings, which will cause the cash flow to be impacted once again. With the recent announcement of refinancing onshore facilities, the interest margin will be reduced. Maturity date had also been extended to 2021.

With the guidance, they will have a little more cash flow for themselves for debt repayment which will eventually bring down their level of debt. This will also push down it's gearing ratio to a slightly healthier one, however this will take sometime and based on their latest earnings, it might even take them years to do so.

When the "years" goes past, their business might not even be relevant anymore! But I would tend to believe that there is a little light to the end of the tunnel and a small little trading element is present in this trade.




In view of this, I would see that the management is trying to be prudent to improve on their sentiments, a big move to take for APTT that indirectly resulted caused a crash in their share price. A management in a business is relatively important to keep the company going.

To take a deeper look in their latest report, the RGU for premium Digital Cable TV and broadband has seen some small improvement since June 2018, however with a declining ARPU due to the intense competition they're facing in Taiwan and to the other providers as well. Once this is eased, I would believe that there is some turning point for them.

The uncertainty is what that punishes APTT and increases the risk for positions taken up with APTT. However, we must remember that APTT business could be phased out in the future, but it couldn't be easily replicated for things such as the 5G roll out, which might improve on their future earnings.

With the big cut in dividends, it also seems like APTT is starting to lean slightly away from a business trust. They will have cash flow to support other things now.




With the prudent approach, management from Hon Hai that is leading as well as the upcoming prospect, I would believe that there is some reward we could see some time ahead. At the price today, I see some bargain that I'd not see at 30 cents.

I believe that there is some value to be seen.

I might be wrong but I feel that the risk to take for the reward seem a little itchy for me to scratch!

Well, not to be too lengthy in this post, but this should be one of my final months that I will be doing such a portfolio update as I will be moving changing the format up a little in the upcoming month. 




In November, I've also gotten myself some small little presents from Clarke Quay.

Any guesses?

And, yes you're right. This post will be coming up next.




Overall Portfolio Performance (as of 30/11/18):
Total (Capital Injection) in 2017 = S$ 6,566.79
Total (Capital Injection) in 2018 = S$ 6,218.80
Total Capital Injection 2017 & 2018 = S$ 12,785.59

Realized P/L = 13.31% or S$ 1,668.77 (Based on total injection)
Unrealized P/L = -5.70% or -S$ 733.97 (Based on total cost for each counter)
Cum. Dividends + Interest = S$ 489.26
Realized + Unrealized P/L + Dividends = $ 1,424.06 (11.14% base on cost)


Current Portfolio Value: S$14,153.50 (+5.28% m.o.m due to capital injection, dividends and portfolio performance)

CAGR = 5.81% (Based on start date at 14/02/17) - Days Count: 654
XIRR = 2.35% (This high % you see here is due to the wild card from Crypto in 2017 and relatively short duration)

Do take note that both XIRR and CAGR % is on a relatively high side due to the short duration that I'm in the market. As a reminder, a simple bear market should be sufficient to wipe out all the positivity you see up there.


As the time goes on, the % will be significantly reduced and adjusted based on time.

Current Cash Position (based on Opportunity Funds + SSB) = 24.73%

 

Dividends/Interests received in November: $23.85
Total dividends received in 2018: $393.96
Average dividends/month: $32.83


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