Monday, 3 December 2018

Singapore Savings Bond (SSB) - 2.01% (Jan 2019)

SSB for Jan 2019 has gotten itself to the next level - Offering 2% for the first year!! 

It seem to be going higher and higher, making short term deposits further and further unattractive as compared to SSB!


Image taken from SSB's site - www.sgs.gov.sg
I've written briefly on several issues of SSB previously which you might wish to refer to for some of my thoughts:
Singapore Savings Bond (SSB) - 1.78% (July 2018) 
Singapore Savings Bond (SSB) - 1.68% (June 2018)
Singapore Savings Bond (SSB) - 1.65% (May 2018)
Singapore Savings Bond (SSB) - 1.55% (Feb 2018) 


As a recap, on my thoughts about the shiny part for the Singapore Saving Bonds:

1. The flexibility in your funds
2. A risk-free place for you to park your money with no capital loss
3. A relatively lower amount and attractive rates compared to FDs.  (In fact, SSB is offering a higher interest as compared to FD today)
4. Certainly a place for you to park your monies to avoid you from overspending (Upcoming post) 

Below is the interest rate table for the upcoming SSB Jan 2019:


One must always remember that despite the flexiblity of SSB, the fund here has to spare fund to you and that you can last for at least a month while waiting for proceeds from redemption.

Do take note that everyone's situation is different and unique. Actions should never be done because majority are doing so, but to consider upon your own situation before acting.

I've also recently shared with some of my peers on how they could utilize SSB as a form of forced savings to help them with saving up, which I will write more about it in the upcoming post. 

Personally, I will be grabbing up this edition of SSB. 

For more information on redemption, please check on from SSB's official website here.

Here are some important dates for this bond for anyone who's interested to consider:
Issue Date: 2 January 2019
Maturity Date: 1 January 2029
Interest Payment: 1st interest payment will be made on 1 Jul 2019, and subsequently every six months on 1 Jan and 1 Jul every year.

Application Period: 
Opens: 6.00pm, 3 December 2018
Closes: 9.00pm, 26 December 2018
Results: After 3.00pm, 27 December 2018






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Saturday, 1 December 2018

Portfolio - November 2018

Current Portfolio (30/11/2018)
No.
 Counters
No. of Shares
Market Price (SGD)
Total Value (SGD) based on market price
Allocation %
1.
SingTel
1,400
3.08
4,312.00
30.47%
2.
APTT
11,500
0.167
1,920.50
13.57%
3.
Wilmar Intl
500
3.04
1,520.00
10.74%
4.
Starhill Global REIT
1,700
0.67
1,139.00
8.05%
5.
Far East Orchard
800
1.26
1,008.00
7.12%
6.
AIMS AMP Cap REIT
400
1.36
544.00
3.84%
7.ComfortDelGro1002.10228.001.48%
8.
Singapore Saving Bonds
11,500.00
1,500.00
10.60%
9.
Warchest
1
2,000.00
2,000.00
14.13%

Total SGD:


14,153.50
100.00%

November too, like October had been a really exciting month for investors, including myself. With the volatile market swinging from up and down, there has been many traders around that are rejoicing over such days! 

Recalling back... I still miss the winter in Japan while I typed this out a year ago!

Read: Portfolio - November 2017




In November, I've made a small trade for YZJ right before the announcement at 1.26 and had divested shortly after at 1.31, pocketing about 3+%. And yes, this is how significiant the transaction is to such small amounts, stripping almost 1% of my profit down! 




But once again, the above trade is one of the experiment I'm doing and with a fair share of luck, I'm really glad it is went in the right direction. 

Next up, in November, we witnessed the crash of APTT once the guidance have been announced. During this event, I've ultilized a small fraction of my opportunity funds with some additional cash injection to get some APTT from the market, something which I believe most investors steer away from.




And I'm in the midst of adding more counters to my portfolio should opportunity presents. I also do hope to revamp my portfolio or rather declutter it a little in the upcoming months. 

Read: Getting Some APTT

To add on a little on why I got myself some APTT, you may wish to read a little on my comment below: 

I do agree very much with your take that the sunset business APTT is engaged in is of a concern, in fact with a sea of red today, there is indeed many opportunity that is up for grab.

When the guidance is announced, Mr Market had reacted very strongly to it and had been extremely pessimistic with APTT, which I would try to be a little optimistic when I look at such situation, hopefully I will be a little more rational.

There is a considerable amount of risk to take when one were to invest in this company here, especially when they have a relatively huge debt with them and not forgetting on the risk for interest to be go up in the future.

The rise of interest will essentially means that APTT will be paying more money out of their earnings, which will cause the cash flow to be impacted once again. With the recent announcement of refinancing onshore facilities, the interest margin will be reduced. Maturity date had also been extended to 2021.

With the guidance, they will have a little more cash flow for themselves for debt repayment which will eventually bring down their level of debt. This will also push down it's gearing ratio to a slightly healthier one, however this will take sometime and based on their latest earnings, it might even take them years to do so.

When the "years" goes past, their business might not even be relevant anymore! But I would tend to believe that there is a little light to the end of the tunnel and a small little trading element is present in this trade.




In view of this, I would see that the management is trying to be prudent to improve on their sentiments, a big move to take for APTT that indirectly resulted caused a crash in their share price. A management in a business is relatively important to keep the company going.

To take a deeper look in their latest report, the RGU for premium Digital Cable TV and broadband has seen some small improvement since June 2018, however with a declining ARPU due to the intense competition they're facing in Taiwan and to the other providers as well. Once this is eased, I would believe that there is some turning point for them.

The uncertainty is what that punishes APTT and increases the risk for positions taken up with APTT. However, we must remember that APTT business could be phased out in the future, but it couldn't be easily replicated for things such as the 5G roll out, which might improve on their future earnings.

With the big cut in dividends, it also seems like APTT is starting to lean slightly away from a business trust. They will have cash flow to support other things now.




With the prudent approach, management from Hon Hai that is leading as well as the upcoming prospect, I would believe that there is some reward we could see some time ahead. At the price today, I see some bargain that I'd not see at 30 cents.

I believe that there is some value to be seen.

I might be wrong but I feel that the risk to take for the reward seem a little itchy for me to scratch!


Well, not to be too lengthy in this post, but this should be one of my final months that I will be doing such a portfolio update as I will be moving changing the format up a little in the upcoming month. 




In November, I've also gotten myself some small little presents from Clarke Quay.

Any guesses?


And, yes you're right. This post will be coming up next.




Overall Portfolio Performance (as of 30/11/18):
Total (Capital Injection) in 2017 = S$ 6,566.79
Total (Capital Injection) in 2018 = S$ 6,218.80
Total Capital Injection 2017 & 2018 = S$ 12,785.59

Realized P/L = 13.31% or S$ 1,668.77 (Based on total injection)
Unrealized P/L = -5.70% or -S$ 733.97 (Based on total cost for each counter)
Cum. Dividends + Interest = S$ 489.26
Realized + Unrealized P/L + Dividends = $ 1,424.06 (11.14% base on cost)


Current Portfolio Value: S$14,153.50 (+5.28% m.o.m due to capital injection, dividends and portfolio performance)

CAGR = 5.81% (Based on start date at 14/02/17) - Days Count: 654
XIRR = 2.35% (This high % you see here is due to the wild card from Crypto in 2017 and relatively short duration)

Do take note that both XIRR and CAGR % is on a relatively high side due to the short duration that I'm in the market. As a reminder, a simple bear market should be sufficient to wipe out all the positivity you see up there.


As the time goes on, the % will be significantly reduced and adjusted based on time.

Current Cash Position (based on Opportunity Funds + SSB) = 24.73%
 
Dividends/Interests received in November: $23.85
Total dividends received in 2018: $393.96
Average dividends/month: $32.83


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1. FB Page - The sleepydevil
2. InvestingNote - sleepydevil
3. SGX Cafe - sleepydevil
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Tuesday, 27 November 2018

Getting Some APTT

*Apologies as this post is supposed to be out some time ago, but due to my busy schedule, I'm not able to complete the post till today*

Asian Pay TV Trust is one of the companies I'm looking on SGX in the very beginning of my investing journey and one of those I actually started doing a homework for... or rather... an analysis. 

A simple one.

I was pretty much attracted by the yield back then and I started to source out some in our local market.

I remember going through Mapletree GCC Trust at about 1.00 range (something that I pretty much regret till date), APTT at around 38-39 cents, AA REIT at 1.35 range and HPH Trust at 48 cents USD.




Just as I'm doing some homework on APTT back then, the prices started to pick up even before I've completed analyzing it to 45 cents and I decided to drop the idea of having it as I'm not intending to chase any "boats".

And yes, you're right. I've bought myself some dustbins in International Business Park at Jurong for my Valentine's day present to myself.
I got a little more curious when APTT prices scaled even higher up to 50s and 60s range in late 2017 and decided to pay a little more attention to it. To be honest, I'm pretty much disgusted by the level of debt APTT got itself in and I did punch myself a little for not acting back then.

The high level of CAPEX and FCF back then also serves as a warning for me to not enter a position with them. I felt that the risk taken for entering at that range could not be compensated by the dividends.
 
APTT had announced a dividend cut and will only be paying only 1.20 cents annually, at least for the next 2 financial year ahead when the 3rd quarter financial results are released. 




From: APTT 3Q Financial Presentation
The market reacted very strongly and punished the shareholder severely by crashing half it's valued of the next market day to 16 cents. 

How about now when it had fallen by 16-17 cents to 16-17 cents??

Is the compensation fair now? I'm not certain. But definitely, it looks much better than it is at 30, 40 and certainly 50 cents.  

For those that had paid a higher entry price to APTT, this will translates to a big pay cut and probably even a big unrealized loss we're looking at. 

How is it then to non-APTT shareholders?

With this move to cut their distribution, APTT will now have a much more sustainable payout ratio and in fact with some additional room, which could be used for repayment and certainly further development in the future.

Aside from this, with the completion of digital cable TV upgrade, CAPEX should start to taper off and this should bring in more positivity along with the dividend cut for its future cash flow, something which is extremely important. Hence, I would like to believe that the management is being prudent in doing so.

The position initiated with APTT is a relatively adventurous one, or rather like what some would call it, a risky one as compared to the other counters due to the high level of debt they are in and the business they're engaged with. However, if we look at things from a different angle, we might get to see some light. 




APTT will continue to face headwinds and challenges in their business, but I believe at the new move should allow them to do more things than they originally could. 



We must be reminded that as investors, we are paid for the level of risk we take. The risk to take today seem a little more delicious and tempting for me which resulted in my itchy fingers pulling the trigger.

With today's price hovering around 16 cents, we're looking at somewhere between 7.5% yield for this investment, which is somewhere what one would typically demand for APTT, probably even higher. 

I'll certainly be happy to increase my exposure with APTT should the price continues to fall. I will soon write a little more about my thoughts on APTT.




*Coincidentally, right after my purchase, I happen to see many bigger hands scooping some of APTT shares!*

Read: APTT Q3 Financial Presentation 

Wednesday, 14 November 2018

Personal Wealth Building: Money Management

Money management is the greatest key to unlocking all the treasures on your road to wealth. This post is somewhat inspired by STE once again on his latest post (Is Winning the Lottery Cursed?)

I strongly believe that it is never about how good of an investor you are or how high your income is neither about how great your windfall will be. If one is not prudent and does not manages his/her monies well, I believe that no one should be blamed for your mishap. 




I personally know many of such people around my life. Those high flyers with a household income of $250-300k annually, having debts and live from paychecks to paychecks with insufficient funds to tie them through when a misfortune happen. And surprisingly, I’m even more shock to know that they’re blaming everyone aside themselves for the bad luck that is shown on them! 

The significance of money is presented differently to every individual and it is very subjective to be making any comment about it. It would not be expensive for a watch enthusiast to spend $100k on a Richard Milles but it would be a crazy to majority out here who doesn’t know how to appreciate them. 



Most commonly, I refrained myself from making any comments or talk about finances to anyone I know personally as much as possible as I’m not in any position to do so. I also don’t enjoy the stereotype that is given from people about the fact that I’m only 20 years old and it’s never wise to act smart. 




The topic about finances is a very sensitive one and it’s very subjective to each person’s profile. 

To regular readers, I believe most would know that I will keep my explanation to the simplest term possible for easier understanding and to avoid further complication. Ha! Please pardon me for that terrible excuse here to cover on the fact that I’m actually not that smart. 

Back to where the topic started - Money Management. 






As shared in my previous post on Cashflow, this post will be a small supplement to the topic and to keep things simple, we’re back down to the 2 points again to improve on your financial situation. 

1. Increase your income
2. Decrease your expenses

Yes, it’s that simple to type it out. And I’m placing a relatively big bet that majority of the population knows about this. But the question is how?! 

As an investors, most are screwed towards buying a company that is consistantly poses an ever-increasing revenue. While that is not wrong, but can you imagine that the expenditure and cost is also increasing as well? The whole key to looking at the picture is to identify if the company’s profit is growing steadily. 




Perhaps a small simple example below in a few words could explain this:

FY2015 Revenue = $100M, Cost = $50M, Profit = $50M
FY2016 Revenue = $150M, Cost = $100M, Profit = $50M
FY2017 Revenue = $250M, Cost = $220M, Profit = $30M
FY2018 Revenue = $400M, Cost = $380M, Profit = $20M

This company we see above has it’s revenue increasing steadily from $100M-400M in 4 years! Which is nearly 100% growth a year we’re looking at! How impressive is that! But taking a look at the cost, it’s increasing much more steadily as well. 

But if we take a look at the profit, the company actually doesn’t earn as much as it used to in 2015. They’re infact earning less than half of what they used to earn! 




In fact, as an investor, we might even see our dividends get thinned out if they’re paying it from their free cash flow!

But it is always the case that it is more glamorous for a company to pose that they’re getting a greater revenue than it is to tell you it is reducing on it’s cost. Most commonly, when cost reduction comes into play, it represents that the company might be trying save themselves from something. 

It is also widely used that if a company has it’s cost increased due to the start of a new project, it is fine. But the only question will comes when the CAPEX could not taper off after sometime. 

It’s important to have FCF, and it’s even more important when we invest, we invest in a company that manages their monies well. Which is why I always believe that, it is important for a company to have an excellent management. 

A little too much here.. let’s relate this back to us, personally on the money management front. 




Person A is earning $2,200 when he first step into the society and slowly after years, the salary 
increases. But here’s one thing that is still common, which is that he will still have to live on his paychecks with no significant progression in savings because as his income increases, so does his expenses. 

Person A will pamper himself a little more than indulge in some form of luxury that depletes his wealth. Unknowingly, restricting himself from further savings despite having a growth in income.

It is important for one to have a higher income to accelerate the speed of savings to build more wealth. But it’s more important for one to have discipline and some form of money management in order for them to be able to accumulate wealth faster. 




So simply, the very first step is MONEY MANAGEMENT. 

I shall end this small idea about money management here before I progress into the next topic. 

Thursday, 1 November 2018

Portfolio - October 2018

Current Portfolio (31/10/2018)
No.
 Counters
No. of Shares
Market Price (SGD)
Total Value (SGD) based on market price
Allocation %
1.
SingTel
1,400
3.18
4,452.00
33.12%
2.
Wilmar Intl
500
3.16
1,580.00
11.75%
3.
Starhill Global REIT
1,700
0.675
1,147.00
8.54%
4.
Far East Orchard
800
1.26
1,008.00
7.50%
5.
AIMS AMP Cap REIT
400
1.32
528.00
3.93%
6.ComfortDelGro1002.28228.001.70%
7.
Singapore Saving Bonds
11,500.00
1,500.00
11.16%
8.
Warchest
1
3,000.00
3,000.00
22.32%

Total SGD:


13,443.50
100.00%


This month had been a really really bloody month for most people and I'm definitely not excluded. STI had fallen through it's 3000 support level days ago and had regained itselves briefly before closing today at 3060. At the closing price today it translates to a fall of 16% since its high of 3641 earlier this year. 



Aside from the bloody month in the market, I'm also experiencing a terrible month and I believe there's a little more to go before anything will change. 



My portfolio is not spared from this bloodshed this month too. And I'm thinking that I might be a little bit too stupid to not act this month. As mentioned earlier, I'm looking to optimize my portfolio a little and I might certainly revise a little on the format of my portfolio updates soon too.

Having that said, I'm looking to concentrate my portfolio and leave out exact details for the portfolio upon optimization. Having an extremely small capital here, it is difficult for anything significant to happen. 

I'm also looking to do some trading on SGX which I will soon be doing an update about. Hopefully, with these practical lessons, I will be able to learn more. 

With that in mind, I will sum up this month's portfolio update here. In the next few posts, I move on slowly to touch more on the different thing that I'll be doing in the upcoming days.
 




Overall Portfolio Performance (as of 31/10/18):
Total (Capital Injection) in 2017 = S$ 6,566.79
Total (Capital Injection) in 2018 = S$ 5,337.30
Total Capital Injection 2017 & 2018 = S$ 11,904.09

Realized P/L = 13.31% or S$ 1,583.95 (Based on total injection)
Unrealized P/L = -4.37% or -S$ 477.49 (Based on total cost for each counter)
Cum. Dividends + Interest = S$ 465.41
Realized + Unrealized P/L + Dividends = $ 1,571.87 (13.20% base on cost)


Current Portfolio Value: S$13,443.50 (+1.95% m.o.m due to capital injection, dividends and portfolio performance)

CAGR = 7.36% (Based on start date at 14/02/17) - Days Count: 625
XIRR = 14.07% (This high % you see here is due to the wild card from Crypto in 2017 and relatively short duration)

Do take note that both XIRR and CAGR % is on a relatively high side due to the short duration that I'm in the market. As a reminder, a simple bear market should be sufficient to wipe out all the positivity you see up there.


As the time goes on, the % will be significantly reduced and adjusted based on time.

Current Cash Position (based on Opportunity Funds + SSB) = 33.47%
 
Dividends/Interests received in October: $0
Total dividends received in 2018: $370.11
Average dividends/month: $30.84




You will also be able to look for me on some other platforms:
1. FB Page - The sleepydevil
2. InvestingNote - sleepydevil
3. SGX Cafe - sleepydevil
4. You may also subscribe to receive my latest email updates here

Sunday, 28 October 2018

Cash is not King. Cashflow is.

When it comes to the topic of investing, I believe everyone out here wanted the same outcome - which is to allow our money to grow. In another words, by investing, we want our money to come out more than what we place into.

But sadly, the perfect world is never constructed in such a fashion and it is not always the case as there is many that actually came out with lesser money than injected.
 
Being a not-very-smart investor myself, I believe that aside the homework or due-diligence that is done, we need a fair share of luck to help us out as well.






By receiving dividends from my stock holding, it does provide me with a decent level of comfort, and at the same time, it does help me a little by reducing on my transaction fees as there is lesser buying and selling.

When a company pays us dividend, this actually creates an additional source of income for ourselves, which increases our cash flow. 

Similarly to a business, cash flow is a very important aspect in our financial state.




When we spend more than what we earn, our cash flow is negative. To finance the expenditure, we will have to tap on our retained earnings (savings) or take up loan to do so. However, if a negative cash flow is a norm, our savings will deplete or we will end up with a snowball of debt.



If we do not know how to manage our finances, regardless of how high our salary is, we will still end every month with a sad note, while we anxiously wait for our salary to be in.








If you're taking home $3,000 a month and spending $2,500 each month. We're still positive with $500 here. This will also translate to a spending rate of 83%

However, if you're spending $4,000. This is when you have a negative cash flow of $1,000!




Assuming, the salary now increases to $5,000. Taking the same rate of spending, we're actually looking at positive cash flow of $1,500!

The equation today is pretty clear cut.

To increase our cash flow, we can either:
1. Increase our income/Create additional stream of income
2. Decrease our expenses

Optimally, both 1 and 2 has to be done together to yield the best result. 

So why is cash flow exactly the King and not cash?

I'll draw a simple example to illustrate this.

Person A, retired with $200,000 in cash. Spending $1,000 every mth, with inflation at 3%. This person will not be able to make through the 14th year. Person A has a negative cash flow every month and has been using his savings to make it through.






Person B, retired with $200,000 in assets generating 5% dividends per year, inflation at 3%. This person will not be able to make through the 26th year. And yes, person B is having a negative cash flow as well! But with a source of income, the impact he'll face to die from hunger is delayed by 12 years!




Realize the differences?

So what if one has an inflow greater than outflow

Your guess is as good as mine. With a greater inflow than outflow, this person will be able to even accumulate more wealth as he is spending money! 

If this person continues to re-invest his excess cash into this retirement pot, he would probably be able to survive till the day Hades decided to look for him!




But again, at certain point of times, being filled with cash represents opportunity. But if the cash here is not being used meaningfully, it defeats the purpose and the cash here is just a stagnant pile of papers. 

By having a certain level of cash with us, this will provide us with some form of hedging. But if we are overly-hedged we have indirectly incurred more losses to our monies than we could do to "protect" it!

To make it clear, it is important for one to have cash to protect themselves. When they're lucky with cash, they will be presented more opportunities. 

However, if we do not make good use of it, it is still useless.

Whereas, it is essential for us to have a strong free cash flow.


You will also be able to look for me on some other platforms:
1. FB Page - The sleepydevil
2. InvestingNote - sleepydevil
3. SGX Cafe - sleepydevil
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