Monday, 20 November 2017

A week as a cryptocurrency trader - Results

Yes. Trader. As mentioned earlier, I've not exactly been a trader and not very well versed in TA. To prepare myself, I've taken plenty of time recently to understand the crypto market, technology behinds it and picking up various TA skills, discipline and risk management before my foray into the crypto world.

Hopefully, that this will be a rewarding journey. The initiation of Crypto-investing/trading comes with 2 intention - to build a bigger war-chest and at the same time learning from the crazy and volatile alternative market. (Though, there's no guarantee that it will be assisting me with building a bigger war-chest.)

The week had been a really interesting week for the crypto world. Seeing BCH battle out with BTC earlier and the rise of several alt coins.

Earlier this week, I've made plans to devote some time into crypto-trading after weeks of practicing and monitoring. And hereby, now, I'll be writing about the results, thoughts and lesson from based on the trades executed. Do note that for the trades executed in the past week, 95% of the analysis done is based on TA, and I will not go into detail of showing/explaining with charts for the transactions that had already been executed.


So how's my week in "timing the market" ?

Here's the transactions done in this week:

Note: Transaction fees are factored into the price of buying/selling.

I've executed 2 day trades for USD/BTC and BTC/ETC and a short term trade for ETH.

Summary of transactions
Do note that I've no stop-loss as I'm prepared to lose every single cent. 
A fluctuation of 10-20% in an hour is pretty common for cryptocurrency.

Traded pair: USD/BTC
Entry Price: 5,750.00
Target Price: 6,250.00

Entered at 5,750 with a TP of 6,250. As I believe that BTC will be bouncing around and might settle for a lower price. However, just after I've sold, Bitcoin actually rallied and moving towards the 7000 mark.

If anyone realize, BTC today is hovering around the 8000 mark and this will translates to about 39% gain if I'm holding onto BTC.

Traded pair: BTC/ETC
Entry Price: 15.01
Target Price: 17.80

Entered at 15.01 with a TP of 17.80. TA was done on ETC right before exiting position with BTC and heavy support was seen at 15 range with positive divergence. Another note to add on, is a small speculative flavor for the ETC Summit that is taking place back then.

Traded pair: ETC/ETH
Entry Price: 316.96
Target Price: 360.00

Entered at 316.96 with a TP of 360.00. Ethereum is something that I had been monitoring for some time and with several attempt of breaking the 310 and 315 resistance earlier, they finally succeeded in breaking the wall and went as high as 320. Consolidation can be seen at the 315 range and symmetrical triangle are seen prior to entering the trade. ETH seem to be awaiting for a breakout. A day after the trade, ETH is looming around 33X range. Was planning to take profit and move onto LTC, which is displaying a similar pattern at the 6X range. However, I stayed onto Ethereum, believing that there should be another breakout in days. Exited at 360.00 on 19/11/17 after another breakout.

1. Lessons learnt: Be discipline. If you miss the boat, so be it, do not chase after the boat.

In the process, I've lost several opportunities to buy into others rising pairs spotted as I'm rather hesitant. And quite honestly, there's this few moments, I actually had the thoughts to chase after the boat that had left the port! Fortunately, I remained discipline and reminded myself to hold onto my pants. Hours later, the boat started rowing back. Some even knock onto the pier and sank!

Thinking back now, if I were to really chase after the boat. I would have probably drowned or get smacked by the boat when the boat is coming back!

2. Lessons learnt: Having a game plan, do not be greedy.
Have a game plan. Set your target price. Hit and run.

I've received a notification from Blockfolio on Sunday morning that ETH had crossed the 345 mark. Shortly after, I've set my selling order at 360.00 for ETH. However, after I've sold it, ETH continued to rally to the 370 range, before a small correction to the 35X range, and currently it's hovering around 360.

How nice would it be if I set my selling order at 370? 

Do not fall into the trap of waiting for the highest point to sell and lowest point to buy. There will always be a better moment to buy or sell. 

3. Lesson learnt: The Bull helps, and be less emotional towards your trades
This week had been a bull-market for the crypto world. Should the bear come out, I do not think that I will be getting the same results. 

At a point when ETH dived back into the 32X range, correcting from the 34X range on 15/11/17. I was actually contemplating to lock my profit and jumping onto another ship, fearing that the sell-down is actually coming. 

Ethereum continues to be a good candidate to hold onto for the future of technology. However, as this is a short term trade, it's best to take my profit.

Just as I wanted to jump into for another trade.. a sentence flashed pass my mind.
"If we don't take money off the table, unrealized profit will soon turn into losses very quickly!"


Now time for some results:


I've remitted 500 USD to my Gemini account via DBS on 27/10/17 at a rate of 1.3694 before the execution of any trades this week. As such, my capital in SGD is $684.70.



The spread is pretty high for banks. Rates for buying back today stands at 1.342









As such, converting my ending funds to SGD. 


I'll be receiving S$979.73 worth which translates to a gain of 43.09% or S$295.03 over the week of trading! To be honest, my performance is not impressive at all when being compared with many out there. However, I'm still contented with the performance and lessons learnt this far. 

Beginner's luck I believe, and definitely the bull does play a big part in helping me.

And yes. You can see right on top that the Forex spread is actually eating into 3% of my profits. Really bad rates yea?

You can check on DBS forex rate here. 

Note: Investing in cryptocurrency is very risky. Please do your due-diligence before any actions. Having that said, I'm prepared to lose every cents that I've input into the crypto world should anything fall through. I do not recommend investing in cryptocurrency.

Read:
Transaction cost - Are you a trader or an investor? 
Cryptocurrency? I'm in too
Cryptocurrency for Dummies - Part 1 and a short story
Cryptocurrency for Dummies - Part 2 (Rules for crypto-investing?)
Cryptocurrency for Dummies - Part 3 (When do you start?)
Cryptocurrency for Dummies - Part 4 (Guide to start investing in Cryptocurrency)

20 comments:

  1. Sleepy devil : great start.. keep it up and good to see you having a
    Game plan and stick to it... btw, which platform are you using to trade crypto?

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    1. Hi Richard,

      Thanks for dropping by! I'm using Gemini as my fiat-crypto exchange and Changelly as my crypto-crypto exchange.

      Do look out for exchanges such as Bitfinex that is giving you a cash out on USD Tethers and not USD. Although 1 USDT represents 1 USD, they are actually 2 different thing. And unfortunately, many has failed to cash out on USDT.

      Delete
  2. 43% in a week, sick gainz. Congrats! Keep it up!

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    1. Hi GMGH,

      Thanks for dropping by! Beginner's luck, I believe.
      Your gains are far more impressive and there is many more to learn from you!

      Delete
  3. Woah. Congrats on the huge gain!

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    1. Hi KPO,

      Thanks for dropping by! It's purely beginner's luck :)
      And nice progress you've got for your project on "KPO needs to lose weight!"

      Delete
  4. hi SD,
    very nice trades!
    btw, for this gemini acct, i assume u have to change SGD>USD with DBS forex rates then remit to Gemini in USD? then after you close your trades, you will need to send back in USD to DBS, then convert USD>SGD?
    are there any transaction cost transfering in USD back and forth?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. another thing,
      why not keep the sales proceed in USD, rather than converting back to SGD? since you will be using it to trade in the near future( i assume)
      so you dont lose out on the transaction and fx rates.

      Delete
    2. Hi Foolish Chameleon,

      Thank you for the kind words and dropping by my small little blog!

      1. Yes. You will have to remit USD over with DBS forex rates to Gemini.

      The rates can be found here (https://www.dbs.com.sg/personal/rates-online/foreign-currency-foreign-exchange.page)

      You do not need to send back your USD back to DBS after the trade. It can be stored in Gemini.

      Personally for me, the USD are parked in my Gemini account after trades and at this moment, I have not made any withdrawal back to my DBS account yet.

      For my remittance to Gemini, apart from the forex rates by DBS, I'm not charged with any service charge.

      2. To my knowledge, there will be a $10 imposed by DBS for handling fee and a 7 USD by Gemini for withdrawal (Gemini-DBS), and you will be subjected to the prevailing orex rate.

      Personally, I have a DBS Multi-Currency Account. And I believe that I will be keeping the USD in my MCA if I were to transfer the money back to DBS.

      At this very moment, the USD is parked in my Gemini account, while I'm getting prepared for my upcoming trades.

      Hope it clarifies your doubt!
      Feel free to drop me an email should you need any more help! I'm more than glad to be of your service :)

      Delete
    3. i see... hmm, the transactional cost seems quite hefty...
      one way from DBS to Gem is : $10 (DBS)
      use Gem : 0.5% ( buy + sell)
      one way from Gem to DBS: $10 + $17..

      if i just trying for fun for the first time.. i think a few hundred bucks aint gonna cut it.
      using your eg of 500usd. the trans cost, assuming buy + sell.. is at least $40 bucks. thats 8% in trans cost.. dang..

      the only way is to min the transfering back to DBS and leave it in Gem, and wait till the monies get larger to a few K then transfer back to DBS.
      having said that, does Gem have 2FA? is it safe to leave monies in there? i was reading GMGH blog, there are some who got hacked and lost shiate load of BTC... and he was rcmd to use hard wallet. (ledger/trazor)

      Delete
    4. oh sorry, correction
      "one way from DBS to Gem is : $10 (DBS)" ignore this

      Delete
    5. Hi Foolish Chameleon,

      Sorry for the confusion. For remittance from DBS to Gemini, there is no transaction charges. It will only apply to withdrawal transaction (Gemini-DBS).

      Hence, fees is only roughly about S$19 - (Provided you withdraw from Gemini), which is 2.6% (based on 730 USD)

      Gemini has 2FA. I’d only store USD on Gemini though. Unless I’m going to sell my ETH/BTC. You’ll need to have the BTC/ETH you’re selling in the exchange prior to the transaction. So I’d only transfer the BTC/ETH in when I’m planning to sel it, else it’ll be in my wallet.

      As such, currently, apart from crypto transaction fees which is about $1-2/transaction. I’ve only paid <S$10 for transaction fees (About 1-2%)

      If today, I’m going to withdraw the full sum of 730 USD from Gemini, the total transaction fees ($10+$19) will be 3.9%. Like what you’ve mentioned, I think it will be better to make a withdrawal when you have a larger sums in Gemini to make the transaction fee weigh lighter in the equation.

      Regarding wallets, yes. GMGH have a comprehensive post about the various wallets available and I agree that it is safer to use Hard wallet like Ledger/Trezor.

      There have been many incidents of Coins that are stolen from the exchange. Leaving the coins in the exchange (apart from transactions) is just like putting $100 bill in a locker. Once the someone pry open the locker (exchange), there goes the cash in it. If you were to put the bill in your wallet, unless the person rob your wallet and take out the cash, else it is less likely that your cash (coins) will be stolen. Coins can be easily sent to another wallet without verification.

      As there is a couple of steps of verification needed by Gemini. You’d only be able to withdraw the money from the account you sent it into. Hence, it is safer than storing coins in exchange. With the sufficient funds in the exchange also allow trades to be easily executed without having to remit the money all over from DBS (It will take about 1 day for the sums to be reflected in your Gemini account after you've completed your remittance from DBS)

      Delete
  5. i see.. thats quite clear on the trans cost now.. thanks for sharing these valuable info! i am sure other readers will also benefit.

    btw, when you mention "coins" u mean the crypto currency (btc/eth)right? so basically, the strategy is to leave it in USD in Gem.. then only when want to trade, then buy.. and once sold, continue to keep it in USD in Gem. minimise the exposure of holding btc/eth in Gem
    "All customer USD fiat funds are held in an omnibus account at an FDIC-insured bank located in the US"

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Yes, I'm referring to the crypto as coins. Ahh! I was just searching for it on Gemini and wanted to copy this sentence in!

      'All customer USD fiat funds are eligible for FDIC insurance, subject to applicable limitations.'

      https://gemini.com/security/

      I've also done a check on the FDIC Insurance limits:
      The standard deposit insurance amount is $250,000 per depositor, per FDIC-insured bank, per ownership category.

      https://www.fdic.gov/deposit/covered/categories.html/

      I doub't I will ever have more than $250,000 in Gemini though.. Haha!

      Delete
    2. dont say too soon. if you held your 500 worth of crypto since 2011. it would have make u > 250k. haha

      Delete
    3. Wa. That one difficult la! Haha!
      Let me look for Doraemon first and borrow time machine! :p

      Dropped by your blog. Nice PX200 with sidecar. It's nice to know another motor enthusiast :)

      Delete
  6. thanks! now getting excited to try! haha

    ReplyDelete
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    1. Glad to be of your service and all the best to your crypto adventure! Road's gonna be bumpy...But! Wait. Just a moment... Let me highlight the words in red once again :p

      Note: Investing in cryptocurrency is very risky. Please do your due-diligence before any actions. Having that said, I'm prepared to lose every cents that I've input into the crypto world should anything fall through. I do not recommend investing in cryptocurrency.

      Delete
  7. Can you share how do you decide on the selection of the pairs?

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    1. Hi Jeremiah,

      Thank you for dropping by my blog :)

      Pardon me for my lack of knowledge as I am not an expert in the trading field. But personally, I believe, to identify the pair, it's important to pay attention to the news around the crypto world and next is definitely to read about the particular coin before going into the technical part. As most coins around are peg to Bitcoin and Ethereum, you'd have to monitor them. Else, the gains from the alt coins would be wiped out if BTC or ETH is in a downwards trend.

      For technical indicators, I'd use RSI, MACD, it's support/resistance and Fibonacci retracement to determine it's price movement as well as trend. I'd also include Elliot's wave in to to see it's price movements, wave and cycle. It also depends on my game play. For most trades that are completed in hours, I'd also pay attention to it's volume as it is an important factor to look out on. Without volume, there would hardly be any "big" movements.

      Once you have your game in play, set your price in and out. Hit and run :)

      Delete