Sunday, 29 July 2018

Planning Ourselves And Our Finances

With a clear objective in mind, we will be able to work towards planning.
With sufficient planning, we will be able to know which steps to take accordingly.

It's important to factor in contingencies into our planning as well to be prepared for such events.

If you plan to have no plan, you will have to first start with a plan.
If you have no plan from the start, you will end up having trouble planning.




"I shall not offer or say I’ll give anything unless I’ve 100% confidence to deliver it"
This action will only deviate you further from achieving what you are originally supposed to. Especially with our mental biases, we will tend to lack in the motivation to put effort into it since we are not obliged to.







Definitely, everyone is constructed differently.
And as much as I've highlighted it, the most important thing is to know ourselves.


Everyone has a different profile and there is no method that works best for anyone. Each individual will have a separate set of techniques to apply in different situations.

Bringing them into the topic of finances.

So long we have an objective in our mind, we will need to plan for our finances. Such as towards big ticket items, our lives and certainly towards retirement.



Understanding our current profile will allows us to move into the planning with our given situation. It's never good to be planning for yourself in another's shadow.

Having that said, we should also prepare for contingencies, such as preparing an emergency funds to weather us through stormy days. This contingencies also include events when your investments turn sour and jump into the sea of red.

If our situation today does not provide us with a good cashflow, we should identify the cause of it and work towards improving it. Only with a positive cash flow, we will be able to achieve our targets with a lesser effort.

Having that said, the next important thing is line is our motivation and mentality. 
If we tend to think that, just because I am not able to fulfill it, I shall not do it. It's time we reflect a little more on ourselves. 

When reflecting, apart from identifying the issue. The most important area will be the solution towards it. 





Read: Controllable VS Uncontrollable Factors

On a side note,
After sometime of contemplating, thesleepydevil has now joined Facebook!

Hopefully with that, there will be more interactions created between readers and bloggers! :)

Do drop by my new Facebook page/profile to say Hi!
Link to: thesleepydevil Facebook Page


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Monday, 16 July 2018

Account Size Does Matters.. Even In Punting!

At this very moment of typing this... The quadrennial event had finally ended with France taking home the World Cup and the team of France to take home $38 million in prize money.


Congratulations once again to the France and supporters of France.

The World Cup of 2018 had been a really interesting one this far and had kept me relatively occupied for a couple of weeks, despite my busy schedules. And yes, you're right. I did make a small punt this time round.




Earlier today, I made a visit to one of the Singapore Pools branches to get a ticket for France to be crowned the cup holder, with an odds of 1.4.

I'm never a fan of gambling and do not participate in such games even during joyous occasions like Chinese New Year where the majority does. However, for once today, I did something that I probably did not expect . Not to shy away from the nature of gambling, I do admit that this is not a good habit to follow. and is unlikely to continue any further with Singapore Pools. On a side note, I'm pretty surprised to see the long queue of punters in for different businesses.

How good would it be if Singapore Pools is a publicly listed company?

I've been pretty supportive of France for this year's world cup and to my pleasant surprise... The team had been making it's way north to holding the cup today.



I've been reading a little up about the games and statistics of the match and decided to hype up tonight's match a little by entering a small position with France. The position I've entered is a very risky 'investment' that puts you into a binary option, whereby it is simply based on a "Yes" or "No" proposition.

Having that said, I've written off the capital placed into this position and view this as an entertainment expenses for the night.

It is very important to know and understand yourself as this will allow you to know clearly what you are doing. 

With that in mind and some risk management in play, I decided to enter a small betting position with France taking home the World Cup today.







I've been pretty lucky tonight and this allows me to have an extra $20 in my pocket tomorrow.. LOL

This will translates to a 40% realized gain for the event that happened 2 hours ago. But taking the risk into consideration, I'm risking $50 capital for $20 gain.

Well. I guess my luck had been working well tonight and this speculative position today has paid off. Taking a sweet look back... If the bet amount is changed to $50,000. How will it looks like..?

Just a minute.

I vividly remember one golden statement from Uncle CW.

It will similarly translate to a 40% gain. But this time round, with $20,000 as profit in your pocket!!

Yes, the risk of losing $50,000 is equal to the risk of losing $50. But what does it tells?

Account Size Really Matters! Even when it comes to punting! 

Meanwhile, I guess this will mean I have 4 more Fillet-O-Fish meal and it's probably time for me to get one! :)



Thursday, 12 July 2018

Controllable VS Uncontrollable Factors

There's many things in this planet.

Some are controllable and we will be able to control them within our means, while the others are uncontrollable.

I will be able to control the speed of my vehicle by stepping on the accelerator or the brakes.
I will be able to control my emotions to prevent myself from over reacting.
I will be able to control my decisions and body to do something.

BUT..



I'm unable to control the speed of another car and the chances of getting into an accident if the driver is reckless. But, I'll be able to stay vigilant and alert to the road conditions to prevent the odds of getting into one.

I'm unable to control another person's reaction when this person is filled with emotions. But what I can do is to console this person and possibly change the emotions they have in them, which might prevent the person from doing something silly.

I'm unable to control other's decision and body if they're going to do something. But, similarly, I'm able to provide help by all means to change the fact.

It can applies to Mr Market too!

Importantly, we have to first understand ourselves and define the controllable and uncontrollable in each situation.

I might be speaking a little too early today especially when it come to Mr Market's term as I'm relatively new.

But defining the controllable, I'll see things such as emotion, decision, portfolio sizing, risk appetite etc.



How about the uncontrollable? Market movement, the rationality of Mr Market, Volatility, price movements, upcoming company's performance etc.

Prior to making any decisions, it's important for us to do some homework to get a clearer picture, else it makes no differences from gambling or speculation.

I could use several tools along to help me with that. Upon seeing a clearer picture, I will then need to control my emotions and not act irrationaly.

As humans, if we are always thinking about the uncontrollable factors affecting us. We will soon be affected by things that are controllable. 

If I'm constantly affected by the price of a particular counter and losing sleep over it, it's likely that I'm overly-invested.



And having that said, things such as my emotions and decision will make it's way to the door. 

This is when we're going to be affected by things that are controllable.

It's important to make plans and be prepared for contigency! It's about the probability and not certainty. 

How good would it be if we've a controller all to ourself? 


Monday, 2 July 2018

Singapore Savings Bond (SSB) - 1.78% (Aug 2018)

The interest rates offered by SSB has been getting more and more exciting months on month since the start of 2018, breaking a new high each time.

Image taken from SSB's site - www.sgs.gov.sg
I've written briefly on several issues of SSB previously which you might wish to refer to for some of my thoughts:
Singapore Savings Bond (SSB) - 1.68% (June 2018)
Singapore Savings Bond (SSB) - 1.65% (May 2018)
Singapore Savings Bond (SSB) - 1.55% (Feb 2018)

As a recap, on my thoughts about the shiny part for the Singapore Saving Bonds:

1. The flexibility in your funds
2. A risk-free place for you to park your money with no capital loss
3. A relatively lower amount and attractive rates compared to FDs.  (In fact, SSB is offering a higher interest as compared to FD today)

Below is the interest rate table for the upcoming SSB Aug 2018:

One must always remember that despite the flexiblity of SSB, the fund here has to spare fund to you and that you can last for at least a month while waiting for proceeds from redemption.

With an average return per year at 2.57% if one were to hold through the entire 10 years, it certainly look pretty decent as a "short-term" flexible option to CPF for one to has in their portfolio.

Do take note that everyone's situation is different and unique. Actions should never be done because majority are doing so, but to consider upon your own situation before acting.

Personally, I view the SSB as an instrument to keep my dollars tied away and to only act upon when there is a very shiny opportunity awaiting me. This action here also keeps away a certain fraction of the portfolio in cash position that is not exactly having the standard low interest provided by the banks.

I do not know when an opportunity like this might surfaces, but let's hope that it doesn't!
Or at the very least, I do know that at this very point, I do have $1,000 to act on. Haha!

For more information on redemption, please check on from SSB's official website here.

Here are some important dates for this bond for anyone who's interested to consider:
Issue Date: 1 August 2018
Maturity Date: 1 August 2028
Interest Payment: 1st interest payment will be made on 1 Feb 2019, and subsequently every six months on 1 Feb and 1 Aug every year.

Application Period: 
Opens: 6.00pm, 2 July 2018
Closes: 9.00pm, 26 July 2018
Results: After 3.00pm, 27 July 2018






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Sunday, 1 July 2018

Portfolio - June 2018

Current Portfolio (30/06/2018)
No.
 Counters
No. of Shares
Market Price (SGD)
Total Value (SGD) based on market price
Allocation %
1.
SingTel
1,000
3.08
3,080.00
30.62%
2.
Wilmar Intl
500
3.07
1,530.00
15.21%
3.
Starhill Global REIT
1,700
0.65
1,096.50
10.90%
4.
Far East Orchard
800
1.40
1,064.00
10.58%
5.
AIMS AMP Cap REIT
400
1.38
552.00
5.49%
6.ComfortDelGro1002.35235.002.34%
7.
Singapore Saving Bonds
11,000.00
1,000.00
9.94%
8.
Warchest
1
1,500.00
1,500.00
14.91%

Total SGD:


10,057.50
100.00%

June had been an exciting month for SGX as STI continues to slide down to 3300 levels from 3600 in early May. With the ever-charging bull in 2017, it had been some time since STI had such declines.  My portfolio here had too see big declines after counters like SingTel and Wilmar free-fall. Haha!

This month is indeed really interesting having to see a pretty decent wipe and damage to my portfolio. Can anyone imagine the impact of a full-on bear like what seniors experienced in 1997 and 2008?

Also, a sincere apology to readers who might be waiting for my post to see that I've not blogged much the past month. I've been extremely busy in June and had experienced much on a personal note. I believe that in time soon, I will be able to slowly start clearing the drafts under my blogger profile, and more post should be coming up.



Wilmar has seen a big decline in the recent days ever since Trump had announced that the 25% tariff imposed on Chinese imports.

In the recent decline to 3.10 level, once again, Mr Kuok has stricken and acquired 55,200 shares from the open market.

Source: SGX
You may wish to refer to this for more information about the disclosure of change in interest by Director - Mr Kuok Khoon Hong

Big boss seems to show confidence in Wilmar and silently supporting it.

SingTel, on the other hand, displayed a relatively bearish chart from the month and continues to break lower lows.. especially when TPG is set to enter our local market in the second half of 2018. Which is soon.. Really soon. However, investors of SingTel will have to bear in mind that, SingTel today is no longer a telco in Singapore. But a multi-national telco provider with stakes in different parts of the world.

SingTel had also said to maintain it's ordinary dividend at 17.5 cents per share for the next 2 years, before reverting to a payout ratio of 60-75% subsequently. In my point of view, to maintain pay-out of 17.5 cents after 2 years, a rough calculation will tell me that SingTel has to generate an EPS between 24-30 cents.

Judging by their regular EPS (aside from the year 2017 with Netlink divestment), SingTel seems to be able to churn out 22-24 cents of EPS for awhile. With the step into digitalization, we shall be able to see more light towards the end of the tunnel. However, strong patience is required for this.

On a personal note, I view the price for SingTel today more attractive than it is and is looking to accumulate more when funds flow in.




Overall Portfolio Performance (as of 30/06/18):
Total (Capital Injection) in 2017 = S$ 6,566.79
Total (Capital Injection) in 2018 = S$ 2,569.79
Total Capital Injection 2017 & 2018 = S$ 9,136.58

Realized P/L = 17.78% or S$ 1,535.65 (Based on total injection)
Unrealized P/L = -5.47% or -S$ 472.77 (Based on total cost for each counter)
Cum. Dividends = S$ 257.66
Realized + Unrealized P/L + Dividends = $ 1,326.41 (14.52% base on cost)





Current Portfolio Value: S$10,057.50 (+0.39% m.o.m due to capital injection, dividends and portfolio performance)

CAGR = 7.22% (Based on start date at 14/02/17) - Days Count: 501
XIRR = 5.88% (This high % you see here is due to the wild card from Crypto in 2017 and relatively short duration)

Do take note that both XIRR and CAGR % is on a relatively high side due to the short duration that I'm in the market. As a reminder, a simple bear market should be sufficient to wipe out all the positivity you see up there.
Do take note that both XIRR and CAGR % is on a relatively high side due to the short duration that I'm in the market. As a reminder, any simple bear market should be sufficient to wipe out all the positivity you see up there.

As the time goes on, the % will be significantly reduced and adjusted based on time.






Current Cash Position (based on Opportunity Funds + SSB) = 24.86%
 
Dividends received in June: $10.52
Total dividends received in 2018: $146.44
Average dividends/month: $12.20





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